U.S. soldier arrested after winning $400,000

Trump's Iran war is stalling, his poll numbers are cratering into Nixon-resignation territory, and the administration is hemorrhaging Cabinet members while his own son profits off prediction markets tied to the chaos.

Meanwhile, the DOJ watchdog opened a formal probe into the Epstein cover-up, Kash Patel used the FBI to investigate a reporter who wrote about his girlfriend, Republicans rammed through $140 billion in ICE funding in the middle of the night — and a U.S. special forces soldier was arrested for allegedly making $400k on Polymarket after betting on classified knowledge, the clearest proof yet that this administration has turned national security into a casino.

This is the story of the day. The New York Times is reporting that the FBI opened an investigation into one of its own journalists after she wrote a piece about the security arrangements surrounding FBI Director Kash Patel's girlfriend (The Guardian US). When Fox News's Sean Hannity — Fox News — asked Patel directly whether he used the bureau to intimidate a reporter, Patel flipped out on camera (Huffington Post News). Making it worse: Patel's defamation lawsuit against The Atlantic, filed over reporting that he drinks too much, has backfired spectacularly — new sources have now come forward with additional allegations since the suit was filed (The Daily Beast). His former high school hockey players are going on record to say they no longer recognize him (The Daily Beast). The man is radioactive and he's the director of the FBI.

The Strait of Hormuz standoff escalated again on Thursday: Iran seized two container ships, the US military seized an Iranian tanker, and Trump went in front of cameras to claim the US has "total control" of the strait (The Guardian US). The Pentagon is privately briefing that mine clearance could take six months. Trump told reporters he's still "on schedule" because he took "a break" (The New Republic). While all of this unfolds, Donald Trump Jr.'s prediction market company Polymarket has facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on whether there will be a ceasefire (The Daily Beast). A soldier who participated in the Maduro raid has been arrested and charged with making over $400,000 in insider bets on Polymarket about that mission (The Guardian US). The administration has created a war that functions as a casino, and the house is the Trump family.

The DOJ's inspector general has formally opened an audit into the department's handling of the Epstein Files Transparency Act, after releases were marred by missed deadlines, excessive redactions, and leaked victim information (The Guardian US). A separate watchdog probe is examining whether DOJ actively hid documents about Trump's relationship with Epstein (The Daily Beast). In Congress, a top Republican has now confirmed that lawmakers are actively discussing a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell, framing it as a way to get her to cooperate with the Epstein investigation (The Daily Beast). Howard Lutnick, caught in his own Epstein friendship lie, spent Thursday on television unable to explain his ties to the convicted sex trafficker (The New Republic).

While most of America slept, Senate Republicans used budget reconciliation to bypass Democrats and advance a $140 billion plan to fund ICE and Customs and Border Protection (The Guardian US). The reconciliation maneuver — the same procedural tool used for major legislation — cleared 50-48, with zero Democratic votes (The New Republic). DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin celebrated by going on television and calling Chuck Schumer a "lying scumbag" (Huffington Post News). This is $140 billion for enforcement machinery while Social Security offices are in "customer service chaos" due to Trump cuts, per a new Elizabeth Warren report (The Guardian US).

A new Fox News poll shows Trump underwater on nearly every major issue, with a growing number of Americans questioning his mental soundness (The Daily Beast). A separate poll cited by HuffPost has support for Trump's impeachment reaching what one pollster called "Nixon resignation territory" — and flagged the numbers as "unusual" (Huffington Post News). A new AP-NORC poll finds that the key groups that helped elect Trump — including Hispanics and MAGA-adjacent voters — are now deeply unhappy with his performance (AP Politics). Trump's former national security adviser described the administration's foreign policy as "incoherent" (The Daily Beast). Susie Wiles is now demanding that Cabinet advisers focus on the midterms instead of traveling, an implicit acknowledgment that panic has set in (The New Republic).

Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an active-duty soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, was arrested and charged Thursday for allegedly using his advance knowledge of Operation Absolute Resolve — the covert raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — to place a series of bets on Polymarket, netting more than $400,000 in profits (CNN). Van Dyke allegedly made 13 wagers between December 27 and January 2, the last placed hours before the overnight capture, then moved the winnings through a foreign cryptocurrency vault in what prosecutors called an attempt to conceal their origin. He faces five criminal charges including theft and misuse of classified government information. Polymarket, whose CEO once called insider-driven trades "super cool," said it referred the matter to DOJ after flagging the account. Don Jr.'s company facilitated hundreds of millions in bets on the same platform. The family casino is fully operational.

What the algorithm buried:

Yesterday we asked, Do you think Tucker Carlson is positioning himself to run for president one day?

57% of you said NO — 43% said YES:

Until next time,