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THE BIG PICTURE

Trump has used the DOJ to "forever" bar the IRS from auditing him — though legal experts note a future administration could almost certainly undo that. It came through a secret addendum to his $1.7B DOJ settlement — while his personal attorney runs the place and his allies line up to collect. Meanwhile, the Senate is trying to pump the brakes on an Iran war that even Trump admits is wildly unpopular.

On the brighter side: progressives beat the Philadelphia machine, another Democratic Socialist is almost certainly headed to the House, and the left's midterm energy is very real.

Happy Wednesday — consider upgrading to paid at 50% off — or simply click an ad, it costs you nothing and helps us keep covering all the madness!

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

DOJ Bans IRS From Investigating Trump ‘Forever’

What started as a reported $1.7 billion IRS settlement is now a full constitutional crisis. A bombshell leaked memo reveals that IRS lawyers internally urged the DOJ to simply let Trump's underlying lawsuit die in court — advice that was ignored (The New Republic). Meanwhile, an addendum quietly slipped into the settlement agreement goes even further: the DOJ has now "forever" barred the IRS from auditing Trump's tax returns, shielding him, his family, and their businesses in perpetuity (The Guardian US). The top Treasury Department lawyer assigned to oversee this arrangement promptly resigned (The New Republic). Acting AG Todd Blanche — Trump's personal attorney, now running the Justice Department — faced his first congressional testimony over the fund and, by most accounts, flailed (AP Politics). Former Trump HHS flack Michael Caputo has already filed to collect nearly $3 million from the fund (The Daily Beast). Legal experts are clear: there has never been anything like this (Huffington Post News). Democrats, led by Rep. Jamie Raskin, are now moving to force Republicans onto the record with a floor vote — a midterm weapon Democrats intend to wield relentlessly (The New Republic).

This is not a political controversy — it is a sitting president using the Justice Department to exempt himself from taxes, compensate his foot soldiers, and structurally prevent any future accountability. The receipts are now public.

Massie Falls, the MAGA Purge Is Complete

Thomas Massie — one of the last House Republicans willing to publicly defy Trump — was defeated by Trump-backed Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL with no previous political experience beyond the president's endorsement (AP Politics). Combined with Bill Cassidy's primary wipeout last week, the message inside the GOP is now absolute: dissent ends your career (The New Republic). Massie conceded with a joke (Threads).

The deeper story is that Trump's primary victories are consolidating his grip on the base even as his national approval collapses — making the midterm map a potential trap for the party (Huffington Post News).

Progressive Beats the Machine in Philadelphia

Democratic socialist state Rep. Chris Rabb has won the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, defeating state Sen. Shariff Street — the son of a former Philadelphia mayor and former state party chair — and pediatric surgeon Ala Stanford in a competitive three-way race (Politico). The race was a test of institutional versus insurgent power: Street had the backing of Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker, state House Speaker Joanna McClinton, and Sen. Cory Booker.

Rabb had AOC, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, and the Working Families Party in his corner — with Ocasio-Cortez personally stumping for him in Philadelphia last week. As one of the bluest districts in PA, he is almost certainly headed to the House come November. The win is a meaningful data point for the left heading into the midterms: the progressive lane isn't just holding, it's winning open seats even when the establishment shows up in force (National Review).

Senate Tries to Pump the Brakes on the Iran War

The Senate advanced a war powers resolution that would force Trump to withdraw from the Iran war — the first time such a measure has cleared this threshold (The Guardian US). Four Republicans joined nearly all Democrats. Notably, one of those Republicans was Bill Cassidy, who flipped his position in the days after his primary defeat, apparently liberated by his own political demise (Huffington Post News).

Trump, for his part, acknowledged publicly that "everyone" is telling him the war is unpopular and that soaring gas prices are the economic cost — then dismissed both concerns, calling gas prices "peanuts" (The Daily Beast). And despite months of military action and economic pressure, Iran has not moved an inch from its stated positions (AP Politics).

San Diego Mosque Attack: A Hate Crime, Teenage Shooters, and Silence From the Top

Two teenage gunmen — aged 17 and 18, using firearms registered to one of their parents — stormed the Islamic Center of San Diego in full armor and killed three worshippers before dying of apparent self-inflicted wounds (The Guardian US). A nine-year-old survivor described what he saw (The Guardian US). The attack is being investigated as a hate crime. The story is getting substantially less prominent national coverage than it warrants — a pattern you might recognize based on who the victims are.

Crash Expert: “This Looks Like 1929” → 71,105 Diversifying Here

Mark Spitznagel, who made $1B in a single day during the 2015 flash crash, warned markets are mimicking 1929. Seems extreme but we did just see the worst quarter for the S&P since 2022.

So it’s not so surprising that Vanguard and Goldman Sachs forecasted 5% and 3% annual S&P returns respectively for 2024-2034.

Late last year, Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Slok put it this way: "expect zero in return in the S&P 500 over the coming decade."

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KEPT OUT OF YOUR FEED

NOTICE POLLING

Yesterday, we asked, Should the next administration hold ICE accountable for crimes committed in the Trump era?

99% OF YOU SAID YES:

  • “Everyone should be held accountable, including that lunatic that calls himself president. 😡

    - vikingschmitzds

  • “They broke the law. They KNEW they were breaking the law. They should be held accountable.”

    - michaelhogshooter

  • “The question is, do we want a law abiding democracy or a dictatorship with thugs enforcing the whims of a mad man.”

    - callajr.jc

  • “They need to be charged by the states so Trumps pardons won’t save them.”
    - dalesallybaldwin

  • “You do the crime you do the time.”

    - fsnkp

  • One person said NO: “Not ICE, but their bosses should be held accountable”

Until next time,

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