THE BIG PICTURE
Trump turned 80 this week and the country got the bill: a $14.2 million reflecting pool filled with algae and a $300 billion Iran deal so embarrassing even his own cabinet hates it.
Meanwhile, the Obama Presidential Center is set to open this week and is easily drawing more star power than anything Trump is trying to do.
And JD Vance is having the worst book tour in modern political history. Happy Wednesday.
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KEY DEVELOPMENTS
1. Trump's Iran deal is a surrender — by him
Trump spent years screaming that Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal was a national embarrassment and a gift to terrorists. Now his own leaked peace plan shows he handed Tehran more than Obama ever did.
The leaked terms of the agreement show humiliating concessions. Iran gets to "manage" the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that was open and uncontested before Trump started this war in February. Iran gets a $300 billion reconstruction fund. All sanctions get lifted. Frozen assets get released. And the nuclear program? Pushed to later talks.
Trump literally posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" in March.
What he got was the opposite.
JD Vance said Iran would receive $300 billion as part of the deal — then walked it back within hours. Trump denied it existed, saying the whole thing was "Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!!"
The full deal has not yet been published, so it’s not clear who will actually foot the $300 billion bill. Team Trump is now saying it won’t be U.S. taxpayers, but they’ve said that about a number of projects and we all know how that goes.
Even Trump’s cabinet hates the deal. Trump's own CIA director, Secretary of State Rubio, and Pete Hegseth have all voiced doubts about the deal. whether Iran will actually stop pursuing a nuclear weapon.
The nuclear enrichment question is Trump's stated reason for the whole war, and remains unresolved. The deal is objectively weaker than the Obama agreement Trump torpedoed in 2018.
2. Vance's Book Tour Is a Political Car Crash
JD Vance went on "The View" to promote his memoir on faith and got fact-checked to his face on Epstein, pleaded with the hosts to change the subject, and then admitted the Iran deal doesn't accomplish Trump's biggest stated goal.
Why is The View doing harder hitting journalism than most everyone else?
Vance’s book is getting one-star reviews from readers and was trashed in — of all places — the Wall Street Journal as "egregiously sloppy."
CNN's data analyst Harry Enten delivered a separate blow, showing Vance trails Rubio badly in hypothetical 2028 polling. Meanwhile, after a string of White House freeze-outs, Vance has quietly hired a new MAGA chief of staff — a power move that suggests he knows he's fighting for relevance. This post summed it up nicely:

3. Trump spent $14.2 million turning the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool green
The no-bid contract was supposed to waterproof and repaint the pool "American flag blue." Instead, the algae came back within days, the administration openly dumped bleach in it — which did not work — and now it's a brackish shade of green visible in every news photo from D.C.
The renovation went to a contractor selected without competitive bidding. Trump's team claimed the algae problem would be solved by the renovation — it proliferated instead, because warm weather doesn't care about brand management.
Jimmy Kimmel noted this was "one job that should've been right up the president's alley."
4. No Stars for Trump, All Stars for Obama
The Obama Presidential Center opens Thursday in Chicago — and the contrast with Trump couldn't be sharper. The star-studded lineup for the June 18 ceremony includes Bruce Springsteen, Stevie Wonder, Bono and The Edge, Christina Aguilera, Jennifer Hudson, John Legend, Eddie Vedder, Marc Anthony, Common, and Tems — a murderers' row of cultural icons that makes clear Obama can still command a room like few figures in modern political history.
The grand opening kicks off a series of events at the center on Chicago's South Side, with Obama Foundation CEO Valerie Jarrett calling it a celebration of inspiration and joy.
The timing is brutal for Trump: his UFC birthday bash at the White House last weekend failed to draw the A-listers he'd courted — leaving him with Trump family members, CEOs, and lesser-known entertainers instead.
The president had also been forced to cancel his Great American State Fair on the National Mall after the vast majority of performers bailed once they realized it wasn't the nonpartisan event they'd signed up for — replacing it with a Trump rally on July 4th. The message from the culture couldn't be clearer about which side of history it's standing on.
5. Georgia Dems just got the Senate opponent they wanted
Republicans handed Democrats a gift Tuesday night when Rep. Mike Collins won the Georgia Senate runoff, setting up a fall race against Sen. Jon Ossoff that Democrats are already treating like a layup.
Collins — a congressman currently under federal investigation for the illegal misuse of tax dollars — only beat Dooley after Trump swooped in with a last-minute Truth Social endorsement, calling him a "WARRIOR and WINNER."
Senate Majority PAC called Collins an "opposition researcher's dream" who "treats Congress like a money-making scheme for his family business." His campaign also deleted a rape joke from its social media last month and fired a top aide over it.
Ossoff, meanwhile, is drawing Obama comparisons — same event producer, same crowd energy, same "O" signs — and is already being floated as a 2028 presidential contender.
Collins is only in Congress because his father was a congressman. Georgia voters just rejected a Trump-backed candidate for governor. Make of that what you will.
6. Surprising no one, taxpayers actually ARE on the hook for Trump's ballroom
Two months after Trump promised his new ballroom would be "taxpayer free" — not even "10 cents" from regular Americans — financial records obtained by the Washington Post show taxpayers will cover $300 million of the $600 million price tag.
The project has already blown past Trump's original $400 million estimate, which many have pointed out is already abnormally high for ap roject of this scale. Where is the money going?
The wealthy donors actually funding the other half are getting government contract kickbacks in return.
"I guess 'privately funded' meant Trump was keeping it private that he's stealing hundreds of millions of the public's money for his ballroom," Rep. Gabe Amo wrote.
"All this while gutting health care and raising costs."
7. Mamdani delivers commencement address at Rikers Island high school graduation
Mayor Zohran Mamdani spoke at the graduation ceremony for East River Academy on Rikers Island Tuesday, where 57 students earned GEDs or high school diplomas — a milestone the mayor used to deliver a message about resilience and human potential.
The school serves incarcerated young people between the ages of 18 and 21. In his remarks, Mamdani told graduates they had refused to surrender to despair and chose instead to keep moving forward.
The Rikers visit is emblematic of a mayor who has made workers and marginalized New Yorkers the centerpiece of his agenda. Just this week, Mamdani also secured a landmark expansion of the city's Protected Time Off Law — guaranteeing an additional 32 hours of unpaid leave available immediately upon hire and at the start of each calendar year, closing a loophole that had allowed employers to delay access.
KEPT OUT OF YOUR FEED
What the algorithm buried:
Jimmy Kimmel clocked Trump falling asleep at his own birthday party — and the punchline writes itself
Sean Penn just wrote a Jan. 6 script, and Warner Bros. is already making it — with Bradley Cooper starring.
Hillary Clinton says Biden's 2024 run was "a terrible mistake" — and she's not done talking.
Trump just put his own E. Jean Carroll defense lawyer on a federal appeals court for life — and he wouldn't even confirm Biden won 2020.
Fifteen people in Minneapolis were indicted by DOJ for alleged "antifa" activity — the primary evidence being Facebook posts. Yes, they are now arresting people for being ant-fascist.
The GOP just lost its voter registration lead — here's what the new numbers actually show
The Russian artist who mocked Putin in caricatures was shot five times in a Polish parking lot — 600 meters from a Belarusian consulate.
RFK Jr. spent years railing against government quarantine overreach — then did this
The Trump sons' crypto firm is about to get a sweetheart deal from their dad's own government.
Jamie Raskin says Kash Patel is running a personal slush fund out of the FBI — and some of the payments are already bouncing.
The Obama Presidential Center opening just announced an A-list lineup that makes Trump's birthday event look like a county fair
NOTICE POLLING
Yesteday we asked, $300 billion to Iran. Good deal or bad deal?
94% OF YOU SAID IT WAS A BAD DEAL:
“Trump just wants out. The war was completely an Epstein distraction that went bad. Trump is clueless on how to find his way out. Our country will still suffer because we elected a criminal. ”
- dalesallybaldwin
“How can further indebting the country ever be considered good. He should have left Obama's agreement in place and called it good. What a loser the felon is.”
- pattyplease01
“The deal that he ripped up was far superior to this one.”
- asaladino87111
“Iran has all the cards so a bad deal is the best Trump can get to end his war. This is Trump’s and MAGA’s war not America’s war.”
- george.mcgillivray.gm
“Trump has received nothing for this baseless war in Iran. 300 billion to Iran, insane. After all the talk Trump did about Obama and his “bad” deals with Iran! Tell Trump to pay the 300 billion to Iran out of his own pocket!”
- dlisbon9551
One Last Thing
Before you go — check out our latest Substack post: Why the hit job on Graham Platner backfired spectacularly.
That’s all for today. See you Thursday.
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