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THE BIG PICTURE

Trump's grip is slipping on every front — his own party is telling candidates to run from him, he can't account for $13 billion in oil money, and Musk is lying about DOGE's death toll rather than reckoning with it.

Meanwhile, real accountability is landing where it counts: Johnson & Johonson is finally paying for cancer related to its baby powder cancer, and Michigan voters are rejecting corporate money in favor of El-Sayed's progressive alternative.

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KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. GOP candidates told to RUN from Trump as Dems lead on economy, immigration, and national security

Republican operatives are now privately advising GOP incumbents and challengers to put "distance and space" between themselves and Trump's handling of the Iran war ahead of November's midterms.

The advice is coming from Trump's own allies — which tells you everything about where the party thinks this is going.

Fox News polls — Fox News — now show Democrats leading Republicans on the economy by nine points, approaching parity on immigration, and leading on foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Republican Senator Thom Tillis — on his way out the door — said of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth: "I don't have any confidence in him anymore."

His approval on the Iran war has sunk into the 20s. His response was to unleash another massive wave of tariffs plus hundreds of “truths” on his failing social media platform. GOP allies are panicking.

2. Money can't buy a debate: Abdul El-Sayed bests AIPAC-backed Haley Stevens

Last night, Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens met for their final debate before Michigan's August 4 Senate primary — and once again, Abdul made the case for why this race matters.

This exchange in particular on AIPAC is what has people talking this morning.

In an unscientific Fox 2 "who won?" poll following the debate, a striking 94% of respondents said El-Sayed came out on top.

It's not hard to see why. While Stevens has leaned on nearly $25 million in outside spending from AIPAC's United Democracy Project — money aimed at propping her up and attacking El-Sayed — Abdul has stayed laser-focused on the issues that matter to working people: Medicare for All, getting corporate and foreign-lobby money out of politics, and holding ICE accountable instead of rubber-stamping its expansion.

Backed by Bernie Sanders, AOC, and the UAW, El-Sayed represents the clearest progressive path forward in one of the most consequential Senate races in the country — one that could decide control of the chamber.

With early voting already underway and the primary just days out, this race is far from settled.

And while that was going down, Michigan voters just secured something more durable: a "money out of politics" proposal has been cleared for the November ballot. The measure would go directly to voters on the question of getting corporate money out of Michigan politics — a structural reform that matters regardless of who wins the August 4 Senate primary.

Polls have them in a dead heat. Who do you think will win the primary for Michigan Senate?

Tell us your thoughts af ter voting.

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3. Trump can't say where $13 billion in Venezuelan oil money went — and tried very hard not to be asked

At an Air Force One press gaggle Monday, a reporter asked Trump four separate times where the $13 billion his administration collected from Venezuelan oil revenue has gone.

Trump's answer, across multiple attempts: "Towards running the country."

He also suggested the number might be even higher than $13 billion, which raises the question of where the rest of it is.

The original promise was that the money would go back to the Venezuelan people — the same people Trump claims to champion while deporting them. Six months later, after two devastating earthquakes, not a cent has been publicly accounted for.

The last solid lead: Semafor reported the proceeds from the first sale were parked in an offshore account in Qatar. Trump didn't mention that part. He did, unprompted, promise the same arrangement with Iran.

Thirteen billion dollars, no paper trail, and a president who can't answer a question he's been asked four times in a row.

4. Musk claims DOGE killed "zero" children. Researchers documented hundreds of thousands of deaths.

"Zero died because of DOGE. Zero. Point. Zero." That's what Elon Musk told The Economist last week — not as hyperbole, but as a stated fact he's prepared to defend.

It is a lie.

Researchers have documented hundreds of thousands of deaths tied to the USAID cuts. A USAID whistleblower said the agency itself projected massive human suffering. New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof visited villages across Africa and documented specific people who died of malaria and HIV after DOGE eliminated medical supplies and aid workers. "Aid cuts are unquestionably costing the lives of many children," Kristof concluded.

When pressed, Musk claimed other NGOs could have filled the gap — which, as The New Republic points out, only confirms that pulling the funding did initiate the deaths.

The New Republic's read on this is sharp: Musk isn't making an empirical argument. He's signaling to a far-right audience that these children aren't worth counting.

5. Johnson & Johson will pay $5.5 billion to settle baby powder cancer lawsuits — after a DECADE of fighting every step

Johnson & Johnson will pay an estimated $5.5 billion to settle about 76,000 lawsuits alleging its baby powder caused ovarian cancer — a decade-long legal battle the company spent years trying to kill through bankruptcy shell games before finally agreeing to pay up.

J&J called the claims "meritless" even while writing the check. The company had tried filing three separate bankruptcies through a subsidiary — a maneuver called the "Texas two-step" — in an attempt to cap its liability. All three were dismissed.

The deal covers nearly all remaining talc claims but isn't capped: one lead plaintiff attorney said J&J could end up paying $7 billion or more depending on participation. The settlement must be accepted by 95% of claimants before it's final.

J&J quietly stopped selling talc-based baby powder in the U.S. in 2020. The litigation dragged on for four more years.

KEPT OUT OF YOUR FEED

What the algorithm buried:

NOTICE POLLING

Yesterday we asked, was Kristin Welker doing her job as a journalist when laughing with Stephen Milkler, or showing us she's "one of them"?

28% SAID DOING HER JOB — 72% SAID ONE OF THEM:

  • “Since we don't know what they were talking about, how can we judge?

    - callajr.jc

  • Hobnobbing with a fascist enforcer is not a good look. They shouldn’t even have had a correspondents dinner or everyone should have walked out when Trump started speaking. We are stronger together!”

    - jomapo51

  • “I understand that unfortunately reporters may “play the game” by pretending to cozy up to someone in hopes this tactic will help to “let their guard down” and share information freely. But it is definitely not a good look for a reporter. So, yes, pandering to the people who are literally supporting the “fascist in office” who is killing people here and abroad should always be treated with disgust, opposition and defiance. They must always be held accountable for their actions.”

    - b.benda234

  • “Public faces and private faces are different. I'd tend to think her private face...laughing w him...was the real Kristin!

    - mrsfellis

That’s all for today — we will see you tomorrow!

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